What's New?

The price hike in 2021 and the imminent new regulations are worrying the French building federation, but the federation is betting that 2022 will catch up.

How much will housing and renovations cost in 2022? Undoubtedly, if we look at the evolution of prices in 2021, prices will be much more expensive, noted the French Construction Federation, which has set out an event outlook for 2022. Wood, steel, PVC did experience some amazing growth, up 60% to 80% since January 2021.

Olivier Salleron, president of the FFB, emphasizes that “suppliers have all announced a 5% to 15% increase in the prices of their materials and equipment on January 1, 2022.” This is the case for terracotta manufacturers (bricks, tiles), for example, due to the increase in energy prices. A sharp rise, they announced a 10% increase.

"Additional shocks in energy prices are fueling this crisis and are now affecting materials such as cement. Unfortunately, this materials crisis is not over," noted Olivier Salleron, noting that the company's operating margins improved in the third quarter of 2021 drop again.

Individual house prices: 2022 + 7%

New buildings (building permits submitted on 1 January 2022) will also feel the impact of the upcoming RE2020 environmental regulations. In particular, it is necessary to pass on operating (research) costs, which are estimated at 3.5%, excluding material price effects, according to Olivier Salleron.

This will mechanically lead to an average 7% increase in new construction (individuals) in 2022, the FFB president continued

As for the next REP (Extended Producer Responsibility), whose application has been extended until January 1, 2023, FFB has assessed its additional fee at 5% of the construction cost. Remember, it requires producers to manage construction site waste through collection systems and the creation of recycling channels. The project owner, the client, will eventually pay this additional fee

Material delivery deadline extension

“Three months of boiler deliveries compared to two weeks a year ago...it becomes embarrassing, we also lack materials and our company could suffer the consequences of these supply delays due to price adjustments. Heat pumps, for example, cannot be All construction stakeholders are affected by the delivery by February/March,” continued Olivier Salleron.

"Fortunately, the order book is still good," noted the FFB president, who added: "That's why we maintain our skills and staff, as we have high expectations in the areas of renovation, construction and sustainable construction. , All buildings combined But Olivier Salleron believes the urgency has to do with the looming housing crisis.

However, new home activity recovered well in 2021, with 390,000 new home starts in 2021, an increase of 0.9% compared to 2019. Successful recovery due to delayed entry into force of RE2020, extension of PTZ and Pinel beyond 2022, judging FFB.

7.3% growth in new home sales in 2022 (compared to 2021)

The professional body is forecasting an upward trend of 398,000 units in 2022, "given the high inventory of individual building permits, we are likely to surpass 2021 +15.5%", the FFB chairman continued. This will translate into a 2.1% increase in housing starts in 2022.

But the FFB analysis said that what is valid for individual housing today does not involve group housing, as permit dynamics have dropped especially in areas considered tight.

As a result, building permits for new collectives fell by 7% in 2021. "This lack of recovery in the issuance of permits in dense areas will continue in 2022", emphasizes Olivier Salleron, recalling that the Rebsamen committee's proposal (see below) must partly avoid this degradation.

Huge gap in new non-residential

Finally, in new non-residential projects, the rebound in 2021 did not offset the decline in activity in the sector: new starts fell by 11% compared to 2019.

The latter sees a huge gap in 2022, with industrial and warehouse buildings and even public spaces performing well, while the decline in shops and offices should continue.

In terms of activity, FFB forecasts a 7% growth in new non-residential construction in 2022, but will still be down 6.3% compared to 2019.

*Knowing that new home production levels have been falling since 2017

According to FFB, it is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2022

All told, 2021 ended with a 5% decline in activity excluding price effects. On the Workforce project, the FFB noted that 60,000 salaried and temporary positions will be created in 2021.

Job creation will also be limited to 25,000 by 2022, a 2% increase. Explanation for "this paradox": massive hiring in 2021, slowing construction site hours due to the materials crisis, not to mention the return of many expatriate workers.

However, this prediction will only hold "if recruitment difficulties in our occupations decrease and recruitment aid continues (editor's note: apprenticeships)", estimates professional organisations

Economic activity will grow by 4.2% by 2022 and return to pre-crisis levels. "We hope to exceed this number and be able to catch up with the 2019 event", concludes Olivier Salleron.